Melbourne Property Market 2026 — House Prices, Forecast and Buyer Outlook
The Melbourne property market in 2026 is best assessed through city-level data, not the national average. Cotality’s March 2026 index showed a -0.2% monthly change, -0.6% quarterly change and 3.4% annual change, with a median dwelling value of $828,249.
Last updated: 26 April 2026
PropertyWiki uses official market data and independent analysis. This page is educational only and does not provide personal financial, tax or investment advice.
This page is the evergreen PropertyWiki guide to the Melbourne property market. It should combine the latest monthly value index, house-price context, local supply signals, forecast scenarios and practical decision guidance for buyers, sellers and investors.
Melbourne market snapshot
Melbourne is a contrarian market in 2026: weaker near-term momentum but better relative value after underperforming Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide. In Cotality’s March 2026 data, Melbourne recorded a -0.2% monthly change, a -0.6% quarterly change and a 3.4% annual change in dwelling values.
The median dwelling value was $828,249. Treat this as a dwelling-value benchmark, not a separate house-only median.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly dwelling value change | -0.2% | Cotality HVI |
| Quarterly dwelling value change | -0.6% | Cotality HVI |
| Annual dwelling value change | 3.4% | Cotality HVI |
| Total return | 6.9% | Cotality HVI |
| Median dwelling value | $828,249 | Cotality HVI |
Why the Melbourne market is moving
- relative affordability improved compared with Sydney
- population and rental demand remain important support factors
- buyers have more negotiating power than in fast-growth markets
- lower quartile and well-located stock can outperform the headline index
Risks in the Melbourne property market
- headline values were down in the March quarter
- investor sentiment is sensitive to taxes, regulation and holding costs
- construction and rental-supply constraints remain uneven
- further rate rises could extend the softening phase
Buyer strategy
Buyers should compare recent price growth with borrowing capacity and suburb-level supply. A rising city index does not mean every suburb or property type is equally attractive.
Use the national house-price hub to compare city values, then use calculators to estimate stamp duty, borrowing power and rental yield.
Forecast framework
For Melbourne, the forecast question should be framed as scenarios rather than a single prediction. The main swing factors are RBA rates, stock levels, migration, local job growth and affordability.
Add a quarterly update block below this section. The city pages should be updated after each monthly Cotality/PropTrack release and after major RBA changes.
| Scenario | Trigger | Likely market effect |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | Rates stay near current level and supply remains tight | Slower growth or flat-to-positive conditions |
| Bull case | Rates fall or borrowing capacity improves | Buyer competition returns faster, especially in affordable segments |
| Bear case | Further rate rises plus supply increase | Price growth slows sharply or turns negative in weaker suburbs |
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Frequently asked questions
What is happening in the Melbourne property market in 2026?
The Melbourne property market should be read through the latest monthly data and local supply conditions. In the March 2026 Cotality index, the city recorded a -0.2% monthly change and a 3.4% annual change in dwelling values.
What is the median dwelling value in Melbourne?
Cotality reported a March 2026 median dwelling value of $828,249 for Melbourne. This is a dwelling value, not a house-only median, so houses and units may differ materially.
Will Melbourne house prices fall?
PropertyWiki does not forecast a single yes/no answer. The downside case would require a combination of weaker demand, higher borrowing costs, rising listings or a local economic shock. The base case should be assessed quarterly against rates and stock levels.
Is Melbourne good for property investors?
It can be, but investors should compare entry price, rental yield, vacancy, land tax, insurance and suburb liquidity. A strong city index is not enough; the purchase must still work at the property and cash-flow level.
How often should the Melbourne market page be updated?
Update this page monthly after Cotality and PropTrack price data, and after relevant RBA rate decisions. Add suburb-level data quarterly when reliable sources are available.
Sources and official references
- Cotality Home Value Index — April 2026, results as at 31 March 2026 — city dwelling value changes, national HVI, median dwelling values
- PropTrack Home Price Index — March 2026 — national median home value, capital-city and regional growth context
- RBA Cash Rate Target — cash rate target and rate-change history
- ABS Total Value of Dwellings — December Quarter 2025 — total dwelling stock value, dwelling count and mean dwelling prices
- RBA Board Meeting Schedules — RBA meeting cadence and update timing
Published by PropertyWiki Team · Last updated 26 April 2026
PropertyWiki uses official market data and independent analysis. This page is educational only and does not provide personal financial, tax or investment advice.